President Trump said the U.S. will impose an additional 100% tariff on all imports from China, citing a “mineral trade dispute” after Beijing tightened controls on rare-earth exports. In his announcement, he indicated the move could begin “November 1st, 2025 (or sooner, depending on any further actions…)”, a signal to importers that policy risk is now immediate, not theoretical.
Other major outlets report the same policy direction: a sweeping 100% duty threat tied to China’s rare-earth measures, with follow-up comments from the President that sought to downplay tensions without retracting the tariff plan. Practically, for China-origin goods, a 100% add-on would double duty exposure overnight the moment it takes effect.
Implications for supply chain leaders right now
Landed-cost shock: Electronics, apparel, hardware, tools, and auto/EV components with deep China content face the steepest cost jumps if entries clear after the effective date. Expect difficult price conversations and SKU rationalization.
Calendar whiplash: If a firm start date is confirmed, many shippers will front-load, creating short bursts of port/DC congestion followed by softer volumes. Build labor/space flexibility into late-October/early-November inbound plans.
Compliance pressure: Re-validate HTS, country of origin, and valuation now; blanket rates shrink room for “tariff engineering,” shifting emphasis to origin shifts (ASEAN/Mexico) and design-for-duty.
Cash flow risk: Duties paid at entry can materially change working-capital needs. Model duty-inclusive inventory turns and revise PO calendars accordingly.
China’s response: defending rare-earth controls, urging withdrawal
Beijing has criticized the U.S. tariff threat and defended its rare-earth export controls as lawful, security-driven measures, urging Washington to withdraw the 100% plan. Chinese officials emphasize that shipments are not “banned,” but are subject to license-based approvals, which introduces lead-time and allocation risk for magnets, motors, and other high-tech inputs across EVs, electronics, and industrial equipment.
Recent trade data and reporting underline the squeeze: China’s rare-earth exports have fallen sharply, consistent with tighter controls and licensing frictions. Expect spot tightness and longer MRP lead times even if you’re willing to pay U.S. duties.
Some coverage also notes Beijing’s warnings of countermeasures if the U.S. proceeds, another reason to diversify vendors and routes now, not after the fact.
7 moves to make this week
- Run three scenarios for your top 50 SKUs by HS code: +0%, +50%, +100% on China-origin. Socialize results with Finance & Sales to pre-stage new price files.
- Qualify alternates (ASEAN/Mexico/EU) and get capacity/lead-time quotes in writing; don’t assume space exists when you need it.
- Rare-earth audit: Flag SKUs using NdFeB magnets/precision motors; add buffer stock and confirm supplier license pathways.
- Tighten customs hygiene: Re-check HTS, COO, valuation/transfer-pricing documentation to avoid compounding penalties under higher duty loads.
- Booking discipline: If you must pull forward, secure vessel/flight windows and build dwell contingencies so cargo doesn’t slip past any effective date.
- Customer comms kit: Prepare a one-pager on tariff surcharges and possible lead-time variability; align messaging across Sales/CS.
- Board-level memo: Set go/no-go triggers for switching POs to alternate if the 100% duty goes live.
The US move, if implemented as signaled, reshapes landed cost math overnight for China-origin goods. Build pricing, sourcing, and compliance playbooks now rather than waiting for final text.
China isn’t slamming the door shut, but license-based rare-earth controls inject real timeline risk into high-tech components. Plan for availability and approvals, not just duties.
How GLC can help (fast)
- Trade & Customs Advisory: HS validations, land cost simulations, first-sale and duty-deferral options.
- Global Forwarding & Mode Strategy: Space protection, transloads, and lane modeling for ASEAN/Mexico pivots.
- Nearshoring Transitions: Mexico/U.S. network design with WMS integration and cost-to-serve analytics.
Let’s de-risk your Q4/Q1. Book a rapid Tariff Impact Review with GLC’s team, leave this week with a scenario plan and an alternate-supplier roadmap.