After years of tit-for-tat tariff hikes, the United States and China have stepped back from the brink, but they have not gone back to “normal.”

Recent gestures following talks between President Trump and President Xi in Busan, South Korea, have cooled the temperature, trimmed some tariffs, and paused a few escalation triggers. Yet for shippers, importers, and exporters, landed costs on China–US trade lanes remain structurally high and complex.

Several moves in late October and early November reshaped (but did not eliminate) parts of the US–China tariff regime:

• Following the Trump–Xi meeting in Busan, the US agreed to reduce this fentanyl tariff back down to 10%, effective November 10, 2025, for one year.

• China’s State Council Tariff Commission confirmed it will remove tariffs on a wide range of US farm products beginning November 10, 2025, including:
  • 15% tariffs on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton
  • 10% tariffs on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables, and dairy

This is a major relief for US ag exporters and logistics providers tied to those flows.

A one-year trade truce and pause on new pain points

At the Busan summit, the US and China agreed to a one-year trade truce also includes:

• Suspending some retaliatory port fees and levies impacting maritime and logistics operations
• Easing or delaying export-control restrictions on rare earths and semiconductors
• Extending Section 301 exclusion deadlines on select Chinese products out to late 2026

In parallel, the US has suspended a Section 301 investigation targeting China’s maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors for one year, removing a major overhang for carriers and NVOCCs that rely on Chinese-built tonnage.

2. The New Tariff Math: Lower, But Still High

Even after these “cooling” moves, tariffs on Chinese imports remain structurally elevated.

For a large share of Chinese-origin goods, the effective surcharge stack now typically looks like this:

• +25% Section 301 tariff (Lists 1–3)
• +10% reciprocal tariff on China
• +10% fentanyl-related tariff

That’s around 45 percentage points in additional duties, on top of the normal MFN rate under the US Harmonized Tariff Schedule.

Earlier in 2025, the combination of fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs drove average US tariffs on Chinese imports as high as 127%. While that average has come down, US duties on Chinese goods remain more than 18 times higher than before the trade war began in 2018.

Section 301 tariffs: unchanged baseline, tougher in strategic sectors

The underlying Section 301 China tariffs are still very much in place:

• 25% on roughly US$250 billion of imports (Lists 1–3)
• 7.5% on about US$120 billion consumer-oriented goods (List 4A)
• And after a mandatory four-year review, USTR has ratcheted tariffs up sharply on “strategic” product categories, including:

• • 100% on electric vehicles (EVs) from China
  • 50% on solar cells
  • 25% on steel and aluminum products
  • 50% on semiconductors (from January 1, 2025)
  • 25–50% on critical minerals, EV batteries, syringes, needles, tungsten products and more

For importers in EV supply chains, clean energy, electronics, metals, and medical devices, these high strategic tariffs matter much more than the 10-point tweak to fentanyl duties.

Exclusions: more breathing room, but only for some SKUs

A limited set of products, roughly 180 tariff lines, including 164 “legacy” exclusions and 14 solar-equipment items, continue to benefit from Section 301 exclusions, which have now been extended multiple times.

• Recent announcements stretch the expiration of certain exclusions out to November 10, 2026, giving importers in those HS codes more planning visibility.
• USTR has also opened or updated exclusion request portals for machinery under Chapters 84 and 85, creating case-by-case relief opportunities for capital equipment importers.

For everyone else, the Section 301 stack, reciprocal tariff, and fentanyl surcharge continue to apply.

What This Means for US Importers Shipping From China

For logistics and supply chain leaders managing China-origin imports into the US, here’s what the latest moves change:

If your products were subject to:

• 25% Section 301
• 10% reciprocal
• 20% fentanyl tariff

you were effectively absorbing a 55-percentage point surcharge earlier this year.

With the fentanyl tariff cut back to 10%, many importers on the core Section 301 lists are now closer to 45 percentage points of extra duty (again, plus MFN).

That 10-point improvement is real, but it doesn’t transform the business case for China sourcing. It simply makes the current pain slightly more predictable.

The one-year truce and published timelines give you a clearer planning window:

• 10% reciprocal tariff on China locked through November 10, 2026
• 10% fentanyl tariff locked through November 10, 2026 (subject to future negotiations and court rulings)
• Section 301 tariffs and strategic-sector surcharges (EVs, solar, etc.) continue on a multi-year horizon, with some increases already hard-coded for January 1, 2026.

This doesn’t remove risk, but it shifts it from “sudden shock” to “managed volatility”, as long as you’re modeling scenarios and updating landed-cost assumptions.

Compliance remains complex

The new environment adds fresh layers on top of the already complicated tariff picture:

• Multiple legal authorities (Section 301, IEEPA “fentanyl” tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, Section 232, etc.) can stack on a single HS code.
• A new Section 301 investigation into China’s implementation of the Phase One agreement opens the door to future adjustments or targeted tariffs if talks sour.
• Court challenges to IEEPA-based tariffs could retroactively change liability for some importers if certain actions are struck down.

For logistics managers, that means your customs brokerage partner and trade counsel matter more than ever.

What This Means for US Exporters Shipping to China

On the outbound side, there’s more good news, especially for US agriculture and food exporters:

• China’s removal of 10–15% tariffs on key American farm products; soybeans, pork, beef, poultry, grains, dairy, fruits, and vegetables, should improve margins and restore some lost competitiveness for US producers.
• The suspension of retaliatory port fees and levies on shipping services between the US and China reduces friction in maritime operations and helps carriers and logistics providers avoid additional cost layers.
• For exporters in agriculture, foodstuff, and bulk commodities, this truce re-opens room for volume growth, but the geopolitical backdrop still argues for multi-market diversification rather than a single-market bet on China.

5. How Strategic Supply Chain Leaders Should Respond

• Re-run your land cost scenarios
• Audit your HS classifications and 301 exposures
• Check for tariff exclusions
• Stress-test your China dependency
• Make sure invoices, packing lists, and entry data are consistent and audit ready.

How GLC Can Help You Navigate the New US–China Tariff Landscape

At Global Logistical Connections (GLC), we see tariffs not just as a cost, but as a design parameter for your supply chain. Our integrated model, freight forwarding, warehousing & fulfillment, and in-house customs brokerage helps you:

• Model landed costs end-to-end across China, Mexico, and other key origins
• Optimize routing and mode (ocean, air, intermodal) to protect service levels under new cost realities
• Leverage our customs brokerage expertise to:
  • Validate HS codes and origin declarations
  • Explore eligibility for Section 301 exclusions
  • Stay ahead of regulatory changes and investigations

If you’re re-pricing, re-sourcing, or re-designing your US–China supply chain for 2026, you don’t have to do it alone.

If you need help with your next customs or tariff review, contact us at [email protected].