As August 1st approaches, it’s clear that this year’s peak season never truly arrived. Despite ocean carriers’ attempts to raise freight rates through a General Rate Increase (GRI), market conditions simply wouldn’t cooperate. Soft demand, shifting tariff timelines, and volatile policy swings under the so-called “TACO” strategy have upended traditional shipping cycles.
Rates for August are now falling, not rising, and with booking volumes down sharply year-over-year, the outlook for the rest of 2025 is anything but strong. For many in the industry, it feels like peak season quietly ended before it ever began.
An Uneven Year: Peaks, Pauses, and Policy Shocks
As the August 1st tariff implementation nears, the global shipping market, particularly U.S.-bound liner cargo, has been thrown into disarray. The ongoing tariff war under the Trump administration, often referred to by insiders as the TACO policy (Tariff Announcement, Cancellation, and Oscillation), has disrupted traditional shipping patterns, strained planning cycles, and left the industry in a prolonged state of uncertainty.
The year began with a frantic shipping rush between January and March as businesses scrambled to front-load orders ahead of expected tariff hikes. But the announcement of the “equivalent tariff policy 1.0” in April hit the brakes hard on cargo volumes.
A temporary rebound occurred in May after a delayed tariff timeline for Chinese goods, but volumes never reached expected levels. By June, shipments had dropped again. Then, the July 7th announcement of “equivalent tariff 2.0” reignited market anxiety.
Despite the suspension window extension for countries other than China, from July 9th to August 1st, most cargo no longer had time to reach the U.S. East or even West Coast in time.
The result? The market entered a holding pattern of low volumes and widespread confusion.
The Data Behind the Decline
According to Vizion, from June 30 to July 6, bookings for China–U.S. liner services were:
- 🔻 39% lower than the week of May 12–18 (just after the last tariff suspension),
- 🔻 18% down year-over-year.
Overall, bookings for all U.S.-bound liners fell 12% YoY, a striking figure for what should be peak season. While U.S. imports from Asia rose 3.4% in the first half of 2025, that growth was front-loaded. By June, the momentum had all but evaporated.
Key trend highlights:
- January saw peak volumes, nearly 20% higher than June.
- China’s share of U.S. imports fell from 40% in January to 29% by June.
- The expected monthly upward trend from April onward failed to materialize for the first time in years.
Freight Rates Can’t Hold Amid Soft Demand
In early July, ocean carriers attempted to implement a GRI (General Rate Increase) effective August 1:
- USWC: Targeted $3,000/40’
- USEC: Targeted $4,000/40’
But with demand lagging, the market simply didn’t support it. By July 28:
- USWC rates had fallen to $1,900–$2,000/40’,
- USEC rates dipped to $3,100–$3,200/40’,
- Some carriers like WHL and YML even published $1,700–$1,800/40’ to USWC,
- MSK and others reportedly offered even lower rates.
Why aren’t rates dropping even more? Because once FAK (Freight All Kinds) spot rates fall below BCO (Beneficial Cargo Owner) annual contract rates, BCOs may abandon long-term agreements and demand renegotiations, something carriers are trying to avoid.
Lower Volumes, Lingering Uncertainty
Looking ahead, all countries exporting to the U.S. will face higher baseline tariffs beginning in August. The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects that volumes from August to November will drop by over 18% year-over-year and even be 7% below 2023 levels.
For logistics professionals and importers, this moment calls for careful recalibration of sourcing timelines, rate strategies, and contract negotiations.
In an era where policy dictates pace, agility, not volume, may be the new measure of success.
At GLC, we understand that navigating uncertainty requires more than just logistics, it requires partnership, insight, and strategic flexibility. Our global team is actively monitoring rate changes, capacity shifts, and policy developments to help you make confident decisions in real time.
Whether you’re adjusting import schedules, looking to diversify sourcing regions, or re-negotiating service contracts, GLC provides the expertise, carrier relationships, and technology to keep your supply chain resilient. In a disrupted market, we’re here to be your stable link.